V1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | Michael B
Today’s Change (Sep 21, 2026)
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About
Switches between buying sharp 5‑day dips (with 3x Nasdaq/S&P) in bear phases and a leveraged stocks+long‑bonds blend in bull phases, falling back to a safety basket (USD, gold, staples, short Treasuries) when trends weaken.
Regime: If SPY’s worst 1‑yr drop >10% → bear; else → bull.
Bear: Two sleeves. When QQQ or SPY fall >5% in 5 days, buy TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) or UPRO (3x S&P). If that fund already jumped >5% today—or no dip—hold Safety Mix: UUP (US dollar), GLD (gold), XLP (staples), SHY (short Treasuries).
Bull: ~55% UPRO/TQQQ + 45% TMF (3x long Treasuries). If SPY weak vs trend, switch to Safety Mix.
Regime-driven tactical strategy: dip buys with 3x ETFs in bear markets, levered stock/bond mix in bulls, plus a safety basket. Out-of-sample: ~20.9% annualized return (SPY ~21.7%), Sharpe ~0.74 (vs 1.39). A diversified, risk-aware complement to the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.96 | 0.31 | 0.56 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 786% | 14.15% | -0.5% | 2.26% | 0.86 | |
| 15,722.37% | 35.95% | -1.61% | -8.5% | 1.2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,582,236.56Regulatory Fees
$1,622.36
Total Slippage
$10,274.68
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 8, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, leveraged etfs, dip buying, trend guard, risk on/off, tactical allocation, stocks, long treasuries, gold, dollar
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks