V1.1 | Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR | Michael B | Safety Mix Update
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-timing strategy that switches between aggressive growth in good markets and defensive dip-buying in rough markets, using leveraged stock funds, Treasury bonds, and a safety mix of dollar, gold, and staples.
This strategy first asks: has the U.S. stock market had a meaningful drop in the past year?
If yes, it acts cautiously and only buys sharp short-term selloffs in big U.S. stock indexes using extra-aggressive funds. If there is no fresh dip—or the rebound already looks too strong—it hides in a safety mix of the U.S. dollar, gold, and consumer-staples stocks.
If no, it assumes conditions are better and holds a high-growth mix: aggressive U.S. stock funds plus long-term Treasury bonds. But if the market starts wobbling in the short term, it also moves back to that same safety mix.
Out-of-sample annualized return: 20.95% vs the S&P 500's 20.78%. Uses regime switching to chase upside in good markets and move to safety in volatility. Comparable or better growth, but higher drawdowns and lower risk-adjusted Sharpe in tests.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.21 | 0.98 | 0.33 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 799.26% | 14.17% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.86 | |
| 17,585.27% | 36.64% | -4.13% | -1.75% | 1.21 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,768,526.95Regulatory Fees
$1,752.19
Total Slippage
$11,159.42
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 12, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, dip buying, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, us equities, defensive assets
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks