A defensive market-timing strategy that usually hides in T-bills or short-term bonds, and only makes aggressive leveraged bets on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 after panic, trend, and rebound signals.

This strategy checks the market every day and decides between three main stances: cash-like Treasury bills, short-term bonds, or aggressive bets on the U.S. stock market going up or down. It first looks for panic in the market using UVXY, a fear/volatility product. If fear is extreme, it hides in very short-term Treasury bills (BIL). If panic is not extreme, it asks whether the market is in a long-term uptrend by checking if SPY (the S&P 500) is above its 200-day trend line. Oddly, in the current code, the “bull market” branch still stays in Treasury bills, so it does not really take advantage of healthy markets. If the market is not in a long-term uptrend, it becomes more active. It looks for sharp recent selloffs in QQQ (big Nasdaq stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon) or SPY. To measure that, it uses RSI, which is a speedometer for recent price movement: low RSI means prices fell hard recently, high RSI means they rose hard recently. When stocks look beaten down, it may buy a leveraged fund that rises when the Nasdaq or S&P 500 rises (TQQQ or UPRO), but only if that fund looks stronger than a safer short-term bond fund (BSV). If not, it stays in bonds. In other cases, it may buy TQQQ to bet on a rebound, buy SQQQ to bet on the Nasdaq falling, or choose bonds instead. So the strategy is mainly a defensive, rules-based trader that tries to sidestep crashes, sit in safe assets often, and only make aggressive stock bets after certain momentum signals appear.

Out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ~1.30 vs ~1.21) and far smaller drawdowns (7.6% vs 18.8%). A defensive, trend-driven approach with low beta aims for steadier upside and less risk than the S&P 500.