V0.0.1a Simple Man - BT 11-23-2011 - AaronC
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A high-risk market-timing strategy that chases strong assets in bull markets, but can abruptly shift into volatility bets or defensive positions when stocks or bonds look stressed.
This strategy first asks: “Is the tech-heavy U.S. market in a long-term uptrend?” using QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 fund).
If yes, it usually puts 10% in a leveraged S&P 500 fund (UPRO) and 90% into the 9 strongest recent performers from a mixed list of stocks and aggressive funds.
If the market looks too overheated, it instead jumps fully into UVXY, a very risky fund that tends to rise when market fear spikes.
If the market is not in an uptrend, it turns defensive and looks at long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Depending on bond strength, it either holds a bond-against fund (TMV) or a defensive stock fund (BTAL), plus 1–2 of the weakest recent assets from a mixed list.
Dynamic, regime-driven strategy blending momentum with volatility hedging to diversify a core stock allocation. Out-of-sample: ~19.28% annualized vs SPY 20.76%; different risk profile with hedges in stressed markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.47 | 1.26 | 0.29 | 0.54 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 715.84% | 15.07% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.93 | |
| 699,068.01% | 80.74% | 5.41% | 2.34% | 1.72 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$69,916,800.81Regulatory Fees
$136,837.40
Total Slippage
$1,295,159.80
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 15, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, market timing, momentum, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility trading, sector rotation, high risk
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 36 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
Stocks
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Stocks
BHP
BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BX
Blackstone Inc.
Stocks
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc. Common Stock (DE)
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co.
Stocks