v 0.0.1 | If/Else into Every Sector (No Leverage) | Taco
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A no-leverage, daily-rebalanced sector-rotation system with a small crypto overlay and a volatility hedge trigger, using max-drawdown and short-term momentum signals to pick among a few broad assets while mostly staying in cash.
- Start with mostly cash (about 90%) and keep a 10% slot for potential exposure (including crypto).
- Daily rebalance: evaluate signals and decide which asset to hold in that 10% slot for the day.
- Momentum hedge: compute a short-term momentum signal on TQQQ (RSI over 10 days). If RSI > 79, move into VXX (volatility-based hedge) instead of chasing sector exposure.
- Sector check (in order): QQQ, XLE, XME, GLD. For each, measure the biggest price drop from a peak in the last ~20 days (max drawdown). If that drawdown is less than 5%, allocate to that sector ETF and stop checking further (that sector is chosen for the day).
- If none of the sector checks pass the drawdown test, shift into SHY (short-term Treasuries) as a safe-haven choice.
- Crypto block: separately, if GBTC is above its 50-day moving average (i.e., price > EMA50), allocate 10% to GBTC; if not, keep that 10% slot available for the sector rules above.
- No leverage anywhere, and all rebalances are daily.
- Purpose: test whether using a max-drawdown filter to rotate among a small set of broad assets can beat the market while limiting downside.
- Practical note for laymen: VXX is a volatility instrument and can behave very differently from stocks; GBTC is a crypto-linked vehicle; QQQ, XLE, XME, GLD, SHY are common ETFs representing tech, energy, materials, gold, and short-term bonds respectively.
Out-of-sample edge: 21.43% annualized vs 18.33%; max drawdown 11.84% vs 18.76%; Sharpe 1.23 vs 1.06; Calmar 1.81. Cash-centric, no-leverage rotation with a small crypto overlay and risk hedges aiming for higher, steadier returns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 12, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Sector rotation, risk-managed, cash-centric, no leverage, crypto overlay
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
VXX
iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN
Stocks
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XME
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
Stocks