UPRO FTLT (Azqato's Longer Backtest)
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Daily tactical switch using trend and “heat/cold” (RSI) readings. In uptrends it usually rides 3× S&P (UPRO) but hedges with UVXY or cash; in downtrends it buys bounces (TECL), shorts (SPXU), or holds bonds. Very high risk.
Checks daily if the S&P 500 is in an uptrend (recent price above its 200‑day average). Uptrend: if markets are extremely “hot” (RSI>80 on S&P or Nasdaq), buy UVXY (volatility) for a pullback; if medium‑term is strong, park in BIL (T‑bills); otherwise ride UPRO (3× S&P). Downtrend: if Nasdaq is very “cold” (RSI<30), buy TECL (3× tech) for a bounce; else short with SPXU (3× inverse S&P) on “hot” readings or hold IEF/BSV when stronger. RSI = a 0–100 heat score.
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return ~92% with Sharpe ~1.51 and Calmar ~2.59, outperforming SPY on risk-adjusted basis. Accept higher drawdowns (~35.6% vs ~18.8%) for upside from adaptive, leveraged trend/volatility tilts.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 1.24 | 0.16 | 0.4 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 685.88% | 15.41% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.94 | |
| 11,411,066.36% | 124.73% | -1.61% | -2.2% | 1.8 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,141,116,636.48Regulatory Fees
$1,655,358.95
Total Slippage
$11,893,008.77
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 7, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend + mean reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility trading, us equities, treasuries, daily rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks