UPRO FTLT (Azqato's Longer Backtest)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced, signal-driven rotation among leveraged/inverse ETFs (UPRO, TECL, SPXU, UVXY) plus cash/bond proxies (BIL, IEF, BSV) guided by moving-average trend checks and RSI momentum signals to seek upside with built-in hedging.
- The strategy rebalances every trading day across a set of ETFs including UVXY (volatility), UPRO (3x long S&P 500), SPXU (3x inverse S&P 500), TECL (3x long tech), SPY, QQQ, BIL (short-term cash-like bonds), IEF (mid/long bonds), and BSV (short-term bonds).
- It starts with a cash-equal framework, effectively deciding how to allocate across the chosen assets rather than leaving money in a pure cash position.
- Trend check: it compares the current SPY price to its moving averages (short-term vs long-term, e.g., 8-day vs 200-day). If SPY is above the 200-day moving average (a bullish signal), the system looks for long or levered-long opportunities among the ETFs.
- Momentum/RSI signals: it uses RSI (a momentum indicator) on several assets (e.g., UVXY, SPY, QQQ, SPXU) with typical thresholds around 70–80 to spot overbought conditions and around 30 for oversold conditions. These signals help decide whether to tilt toward risk-on (UPRO, TECL) or risk-off (SPXU, UVXY) or to prefer cash/bonds (BIL, IEF, BSV).
- A top-RSI filter selects which asset among a subset (notably IEF, SPXU, BSV) should lead the rotation based on recent relative strength.
- Selection rules can push allocations toward UPRO if broad-market momentum is strong, toward TECL if tech momentum appears favorable (e.g., QQQ RSI under 30 indicating a dip that may be ripe for a leveraged rebound), or toward SPXU/UVXY in risk-off scenarios.
- The net result is a single daily-weighted position (within the allowed assets) aimed at capturing upside while using volatility or inverse exposure as a hedge, with bond/cash proxies included for stability.
- Overall, the approach blends trend following (price vs. moving average) with momentum signals (RSI) and a hierarchical asset selection to decide what to own each day.
A daily, rule-based rotation among leveraged/inverse ETFs plus bonds using trend and RSI. Captures much more upside (out-of-sample ~92% annualized) with solid risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe ~1.51, Calmar ~2.59) vs the S&P 500, with built-in hedging.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 7, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Quantitative strategy, momentum/rsi, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, daily rebalancing, multi-asset equity strategy
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks