UPRO For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) - BIL instead of UVXY and UPRO intead of TCEL
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Daily S&P 500 timing with leveraged ETFs: ride UPRO in uptrends but park in cash (BIL) if short‑term is overheated. In downtrends, buy sharp dips with UPRO; otherwise rotate to bonds (TLT) or short exposure (SPXU) based on short‑term strength.
SPY=S&P 500; UPRO=3x SPY; SPXU=−3x SPY; TLT=US Treasuries; BIL=T‑bills (cash). RSI(10)=0–100 heat score (>80 hot, <30 cold). 200d/20d MA=long/short trend lines.
If SPY>200d: hold UPRO unless RSI hot (UPRO>79 or SPY>80) → BIL.
Else: if cold (UPRO<31 or SPY<30) → UPRO; else if UPRO<20d → stronger of SPXU or TLT; else if SPXU<31 → SPXU; else UPRO. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample: ~47% annualized return vs 19.6% for S&P, Calmar ~1.05, Sharpe ~1.03—strong upside with reasonable risk. Drawdown ~44.7% vs ~18.8% for SPY; higher risk, higher potential rewards.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.24 | 1.83 | 0.43 | 0.65 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 844.62% | 14.5% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.88 | |
| 71,845.11% | 48.69% | -1.61% | -2.2% | 1.07 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$7,194,511.16Regulatory Fees
$8,636.39
Total Slippage
$57,790.19
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 1, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following,momentum,tactical allocation,leveraged etfs,market timing,risk management,us equities,treasuries,cash