A rules‑based switch: ride UPRO (3x S&P 500) in uptrends, step to BIL (T‑bills) when things get too “hot,” and in downtrends rotate among UPRO bounces, SPXU shorts, or TLT bonds using short‑term RSI and moving‑average signals.

Daily: If SPY > its 200‑day avg (uptrend) hold UPRO (3x S&P 500) unless short‑term “heat” is extreme (10‑day RSI of UPRO>79 or SPY>80) → hold BIL (T‑bills). If SPY ≤ 200‑day (downtrend): buy UPRO on sharp swoons (RSI<~30); else if UPRO < 20‑day avg pick the stronger of SPXU (3x inverse S&P) or TLT by 10‑day RSI; else if SPXU RSI<31 use SPXU, otherwise UPRO. RSI = 0–100 “heat” gauge.

Out-of-sample edge: ~52.5% annualized return vs SPY ~21.1%, Calmar ~1.18 and Sharpe ~1.08. Drawdowns are larger (~44.7% vs ~18.8%), but the rules-based trend system targets strong upside with disciplined risk controls.