UPRO For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) - BIL instead of UVXY and UPRO intead of TCEL
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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About
A high-risk strategy that heavily bets on the S&P 500 in good times, steps into Treasury bills when the market looks overheated, and shifts to bearish or defensive assets when conditions weaken.
This strategy is an aggressive market-timing system. It usually buys UPRO, a fund that tries to deliver about 3 times the daily move of the S&P 500, when the U.S. stock market looks healthy.
If the market has run up too fast, it moves to BIL, a very low-risk short-term Treasury fund. When the market trend looks weak, it may either buy UPRO for a rebound, switch to SPXU to profit from falling stocks, or move to TLT, a long-term Treasury bond fund.
Aggressive market-timing with standout out-of-sample results: ~46.5% annualized return vs ~18.3% for the S&P, Calmar ~1.04, Sharpe ~1.06. Higher upside, but expect deeper drawdowns (~45%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.23 | 1.85 | 0.43 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 974.18% | 14.78% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.9 | |
| 102,158.24% | 49.55% | -1.16% | 7.32% | 1.08 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$10,225,823.90Regulatory Fees
$8,979.06
Total Slippage
$78,629.29
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 1, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity, tactical asset allocation, market timing, s&p 500, trend following, mean reversion, defensive rotation