UPRO for the long term of TQQQ For The Long Term Minimal | Dereck Nielsen, Pietros Maneos & Raekon v1.4 | okhi2u
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Rules-based, risk-on/risk-off rotation. Rides uptrends with SPXL (3x S&P), flips to SPXU (3x inverse) or TLT when signals warn, and taps VIXY/UVXY only during extremes. Uses QQQ/TQQQ as fast “heat” gauges to time shifts.
First check the S&P 500’s long‑term trend (price vs 200‑day average). In uptrends it usually holds SPXL (3x S&P 500). If the market looks overheated, too jumpy, or after sharp drops, it flips to SPXU (3x inverse S&P), hides in TLT (Treasuries), or briefly buys VIXY/UVXY (fear ETFs). It uses fast tech gauges QQQ/TQQQ to spot extremes.
Out-of-sample return ~50.7% vs 22.2% for the S&P, driven by regime-switching and 3x leverage (SPXL/SPXU) with hedges (TLT, VIX) at extremes. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns (~44.8%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | 0.98 | 0.1 | 0.32 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 20,301,805.86% | 133.97% | -6.26% | -2.73% | 1.92 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,030,190,586.39Regulatory Fees
$1,985,173.77
Total Slippage
$14,270,385.54
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 27, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switching, leveraged etfs, trend-following, mean-reversion, volatility hedge, treasuries, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks