UPRO for the long term of TQQQ For The Long Term Minimal | Dereck Nielsen, Pietros Maneos & Raekon v1.4 | okhi2u
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A rule-driven, long-run equity strategy that mainly buys UPRO (3x S&P 500) but dynamically shifts into hedges (SPXU, SQQQ) or volatility proxies when momentum or volatility signals suggest risk, with a Nasdaq tilt and no regular rebalance.
- Core idea: invest in the long-run equity upside using a 3x long ETF (UPRO) and layer in hedges or alternative bets when signals indicate risk or overextension.
- Signals used: momentum (relative strength/RSI) on leveraged Nasdaq (TQQQ) and other assets, price versus trend checks (e.g., 200-day moving average on SPY), and short-window cumulative return tests.
- Hedge/alternative bets: when risk signals fire, the strategy may switch into inverse or defensive ETFs (SPXU, SQQQ) or into volatility-related hedges (VIXY, UVXY) depending on the condition. The VIX-related hedges are used sparingly and in a structured way (top-1 selection against a few volatility/defensive instruments).
- Nasdaq-dip tilt: there is a sub-block designed to capture buy-the-dip opportunities on Nasdaq by evaluating momentum and trend across Nasdaq-related instruments, selecting a single best hedge or long pair (e.g., SPXU vs SPXL or SPY) based on a short-term momentum screen.
- Selection mechanism: the model often uses a top/ best-in-class approach (e.g., top by relative strength index over a 10-day window) among a set of candidate hedges; this is how it chooses SPXU or SQQQ or other hedges in a given moment.
- Weighting and rebalancing: the base weight for cash/positions is shown as 100/100 in the core block, implying a full allocation to the selected signal, with a non-traditional, non-regular rebalance rule (rebalance-corridor width = 0.15) that reduces periodic reallocation in favor of signal-driven changes.
- Asset mix: primary long exposure to UPRO (and occasionally SPXL/TQQQ depending on the sub-strategy), with hedges in SPXU, SQQQ, SPY/VIX-related instruments, and a Treasury ETF (TLT) as an optional risk-off or diversification component.
- Practical takeaway: in rising markets with healthy momentum, expect mainly UPRO exposure. In stress or overextended Nasdaq conditions with rising volatility, expect the algorithm to tilt toward hedges like SPXU or SQQQ and possibly reduce long exposure or use additional hedges to limit drawdown. It’s a complex, rule-based rotation rather than a simple buy-and-hold or fixed-weights approach, and it relies on timely data and volatility behavior to trigger shifts between leveraged longs and hedges.
Compelling upside with risk controls: out-of-sample annualized return ~50.7% vs S&P 22.2%, Sharpe ~1.15, Calmar ~1.13. Dynamic hedging and Nasdaq tilt aim for higher gains while limiting drawdowns in volatility.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | 0.98 | 0.1 | 0.32 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 603.28% | 14.54% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.89 | |
| 20,143,453.99% | 133.9% | -6.99% | -6.77% | 1.92 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,014,355,398.76Regulatory Fees
$1,985,173.77
Total Slippage
$14,270,385.54
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 27, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 15%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged long rotation with risk controls; nasdaq tilt; volatility hedges; us large-cap focus; dynamic asset selection
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks