UGL Leading Indicator + Blackswan Catchers
Today’s Change (Jun 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Tactical strategy that hunts short “pops”: gold strength triggers contrarian buys in lagging leveraged ETFs; volatility spikes send it to UVXY; sharp pullbacks cue oversold 3x bull buys; otherwise it parks in T‑Bills.
Tracks a small set of fast ETFs: 3x bulls (SOXL=semis, TQQQ=Nasdaq‑100, SPXL=S&P 500, TECL=tech), 3x bears (SOXS, LABD), 2x gold (UGL), UVXY (volatility hedge), BIL (T‑Bills).
If gold just surged, buy the worst recent performer (bounce). Else if S&P 500 gets very jumpy, buy UVXY. Else if the market is dropping, buy oversold 3x bulls when a 10‑day heat meter (RSI) reads <30; if >80, park in UVXY; otherwise use 3x bears. If none, hold BIL.
Out-of-sample, this tactical strategy targets ~45% annualized return with ~9.8% max drawdown and Calmar ~4.6, delivering far higher upside with tighter downside risk than the S&P 500’s ~19% return and ~18.8% drawdown.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 326.98% | 14.07% | 0.09% | 13.88% | 0.83 | |
| 3,256.45% | 37.54% | 0.27% | 21.97% | 1.06 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$335,645.14Regulatory Fees
$333.69
Total Slippage
$2,687.63
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, mean-reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, gold signal, cash parking, tech/semis/biotech
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks