UGL Leading Indicator + Blackswan Catchers
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A risk-managed, tactical strategy that uses leveraged ETFs to ride momentum in targeted sectors, with hedges (UVXY, LABD/SOXS) and a risk-off sleeve (UGL, BIL) driven by RSI/momentum signals and a SPY drawdown trigger, plus a gold-led risk-off indicator to catch black-swan moments.
Plain-language overview:
- Universe: a small set of leveraged ETFs (e.g., SOXL, SPXL, TQQQ, TECL, CURE), hedges (UVXY, LABD, SOXS), plus risk-off assets (UGL for gold, BIL for cash).
- Core approach: start with cash-equivalents and, on each rebalance, decide where to put capital based on a set of rules that combine momentum, recent performance, and risk signals.
- Risk control: if SPY’s recent maximum drawdown exceeds about 7%, the model exits riskier bets and moves toward safety (BIL) to reduce potential losses.
- Leading indicator: UGL (gold) is used to gauge risk-off sentiment; when risk is elevated, the system leans toward hedges or cash rather than aggressive leverage.
- Pop Bot groups: three market-focused sub-strategies (QQQ, SPY, SMH) that apply RSI and momentum checks to decide whether to buy a specific leveraged ETF or to deploy hedges. Example signals include using RSI on SPXL or SPY-related momentum to trigger UVXY hedging, or selecting the strongest/most favorable assets from small sets using moving-average and cumulative-return filters.
- Selection and weighting: within the chosen path, assets are weighted (commonly 100/100 for a single pick, with occasional 40/100 allocations in some blocks), and the system aims to keep positions within a narrow rebalancing window (rebalance corridor about 0.1).
- Objective: capture upside moves in strong sectors via leverage while defending against sharp drawdowns with volatility hedges, gold as a risk-off signal, and short-term Treasuries when risk spikes.
- Risks: leveraged ETFs are volatile and can incur large losses in short periods; this setup uses multiple hedges and risk checks to mitigate that but is not risk-free and requires disciplined execution and understanding of the signals.
Out-of-sample, this risk-managed momentum strategy targets ~40.5% annual return with ~9.8% max drawdown—versus the S&P 500’s ~18.8% drawdown and ~18.3% return. Stronger risk-adjusted upside with hedges and gold risk-off signals to protect capital.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.34 | 0.13 | 0 | 0.07 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 282.74% | 13.28% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.79 | |
| 2,648.59% | 36.06% | 2.37% | 6.6% | 1.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$274,858.87Regulatory Fees
$377.97
Total Slippage
$2,355.00
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Quantitative, leveraged etfs, risk-managed momentum, tactical asset allocation, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks