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UGL Leading Indicator + Blackswan Catchers
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A risk-managed, tactical strategy that uses leveraged ETFs to ride momentum in targeted sectors, with hedges (UVXY, LABD/SOXS) and a risk-off sleeve (UGL, BIL) driven by RSI/momentum signals and a SPY drawdown trigger, plus a gold-led risk-off indicator to catch black-swan moments.
NutHow it works
Plain-language overview: - Universe: a small set of leveraged ETFs (e.g., SOXL, SPXL, TQQQ, TECL, CURE), hedges (UVXY, LABD, SOXS), plus risk-off assets (UGL for gold, BIL for cash). - Core approach: start with cash-equivalents and, on each rebalance, decide where to put capital based on a set of rules that combine momentum, recent performance, and risk signals. - Risk control: if SPY’s recent maximum drawdown exceeds about 7%, the model exits riskier bets and moves toward safety (BIL) to reduce potential losses. - Leading indicator: UGL (gold) is used to gauge risk-off sentiment; when risk is elevated, the system leans toward hedges or cash rather than aggressive leverage. - Pop Bot groups: three market-focused sub-strategies (QQQ, SPY, SMH) that apply RSI and momentum checks to decide whether to buy a specific leveraged ETF or to deploy hedges. Example signals include using RSI on SPXL or SPY-related momentum to trigger UVXY hedging, or selecting the strongest/most favorable assets from small sets using moving-average and cumulative-return filters. - Selection and weighting: within the chosen path, assets are weighted (commonly 100/100 for a single pick, with occasional 40/100 allocations in some blocks), and the system aims to keep positions within a narrow rebalancing window (rebalance corridor about 0.1). - Objective: capture upside moves in strong sectors via leverage while defending against sharp drawdowns with volatility hedges, gold as a risk-off signal, and short-term Treasuries when risk spikes. - Risks: leveraged ETFs are volatile and can incur large losses in short periods; this setup uses multiple hedges and risk checks to mitigate that but is not risk-free and requires disciplined execution and understanding of the signals.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample, this risk-managed momentum strategy targets ~40.5% annual return with ~9.8% max drawdown—versus the S&P 500’s ~18.8% drawdown and ~18.3% return. Stronger risk-adjusted upside with hedges and gold risk-off signals to protect capital.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
AlphaBetaR2R
0.340.1300.07
Performance Metrics
Cumulative ReturnAnnualized ReturnTrailing 1M ReturnTrailing 3M ReturnSharpe Ratio
282.74%13.28%-1.77%0.2%0.79
2,648.59%36.06%2.37%6.6%1.03
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$274,858.87
Regulatory Fees
$377.97
Total Slippage
$2,355.00
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Quantitative, leveraged etfs, risk-managed momentum, tactical asset allocation, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toBIL. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 35.21%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 9.84%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.