UGL Leading Indicator + Blackswan Catchers
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A mostly defensive strategy that sits in T-bills, but during market stress it makes aggressive short-term bets on rebounds, volatility spikes, or tech/semiconductor swings using leveraged funds.
This strategy mostly waits in very safe short-term Treasury bills (BIL). It only becomes active when markets look stressed.
If gold suddenly jumps, it buys the most beaten-down asset from a list of aggressive market bets, expecting a rebound. If stock-market volatility suddenly spikes, it buys UVXY, which tends to rise during panic. After a sharp market drop, it puts part of the portfolio into fast-moving tech/semiconductor trades based on whether those areas look overheated or washed out.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~1.04 vs ~0.99; annualized return ~45% vs ~16%; max drawdown ~9.8% vs ~18.8%; Calmar ~4.61; positive alpha. Defensive core with selective leveraged bets targets crisis profits with lower risk than the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 340.92% | 13.9% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.83 | |
| 3,770.43% | 37.81% | 0.32% | 14.84% | 1.07 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$387,043.07Regulatory Fees
$407.04
Total Slippage
$3,252.16
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, risk-on/risk-off, mean reversion, crash hedge, leveraged etfs, sector rotation, volatility trading
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks