UGL Leading Indicator + Blackswan Catchers
Today’s Change (Mar 8, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A fast, risk‑on/risk‑off trader. It uses gold strength, volatility spikes, and simple hot/cold signals to either buy rebounds in leveraged tech/semis/healthcare, hedge with UVXY during panics, or sit in T‑bills when conditions aren’t favorable.
1) If gold (UGL) just surged, buy the most beaten‑up of: 3x S&P (SPXL), 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ), 3x Semis (SOXL), 3x Healthcare (CURE), or UGL, aiming for a rebound.
2) Else if S&P short‑term volatility spikes, buy UVXY (crash hedge).
3) Else if the S&P fell a lot, “Pop Bots” buy 3x tech/semis when oversold (RSI low), switch to UVXY when overheated (RSI high), or hold a 3x bear (SOXS/LABD).
4) Else sit in T‑bills (BIL). RSI = hot/cold gauge.
Out-of-sample shows ~40.5% annualized return vs SPY ~18.3%, max drawdown ~9.8% vs ~18.8%, and Calmar ~4.1. Regime-driven hedges + quick rebound bets offer higher upside with less downside than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.34 | 0.13 | 0 | 0.07 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 283.65% | 13.34% | -2.64% | -1.35% | 0.79 | |
| 2,646.19% | 36.15% | 0.89% | 6.61% | 1.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$274,618.61Regulatory Fees
$377.97
Total Slippage
$2,355.00
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 5, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, mean reversion, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, gold signal, risk-on/risk-off, tail risk
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
LABD
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SOXS
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold
Stocks