[UAV] Crypto Cycle Monitor
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, rule-based portfolio that uses RSI to flag bullish markets and then assembles a mixed bag of cash, stocks, and crypto proxies (and crypto miners). It selects the top crypto proxies by short-term momentum and the top miners by longer momentum, rebalancing each day to mirror SPY with crypto-cycle exposure.
- Detect bullish markets by checking RSI on a broad market proxy (VTI) with a 10-day window; if RSI > 75, enter bullish mode.
- In bullish mode, assemble a basket starting with a cash-like safety layer (BIL) and broad equity exposure (SPY), plus hedges (TMV, SVXY).
- Refine crypto exposure by selecting top crypto proxies (GBTC, CONL, MSTR) based on very short-term performance screens (top by cumulative return over a 2-day window).
- Simultaneously identify top bitcoin-miner exposure (HUT, WGMI, RIOT) by a slightly longer momentum screen (top by moving-average return over 20 days).
- Rebalance daily, keeping SPY as a core equity anchor while layering crypto proxies and mining stocks when bullish momentum supports it.
- The overall aim is to mimic or analyze how Bitcoin-like exposure moves together with SPY during bull markets, while using a mix of cash, hedges, and crypto proxies to shape the exposure.
Capture crypto-cycle exposure with RSI-timed diversification across cash, SPY, crypto proxies, and miners. Out-of-sample annualized return ~28% vs SPY ~18%, Sharpe ~0.99, Calmar ~1.08—strong upside with hedges, though drawdowns can be ~26%.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 16, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, crypto, multi-asset, momentum
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Stocks
CONL
GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF
Stocks
GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
Stocks
HUT
Hut 8 Corp. Common Stock
Stocks
MSTR
Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A
Stocks
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
RIOT
Riot Platforms, Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
SPGI
S&P Global Inc.
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks