Treasury Fuckery
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A fast, single‑ETF rotation using 7‑day RSI. If SPY beats cash, own SPY. Otherwise, bond moves pick QQQ or SOXX; if neither, sit in Treasuries (IEF or TLT) with a small contrarian tilt between them.
It uses a 7‑day RSI (a 0–100 “heat” score of recent gains vs losses) to make one choice at a time:
1) If big US stocks (SPY) are hotter than cash‑like T‑bills (BIL), buy SPY.
Else read Treasuries: if 3–7y (IEI) beat 1–3y (SHY), buy tech (QQQ). Else if 3–7y beat 7–10y (IEF), buy chipmakers (SOXX). Else hide in Treasuries: if 20y+ (TLT) is hotter, pick 7–10y (IEF); otherwise pick TLT.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~28% annualized return vs SPY’s ~22%, via regime-driven rotations into tech/semis and bonds. Expect higher upside but larger drawdowns (~38% vs ~19%). Growth potential with disciplined rotation.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 | 0.98 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 567.93% | 10.61% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.61 | |
| 1,598.47% | 16.23% | 15.5% | 26.5% | 0.74 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$169,847.01Regulatory Fees
$1,326.03
Total Slippage
$8,945.78
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 22, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical rotation, momentum (rsi‑7), us equities, us treasuries, risk-on/risk-off, single-position, semiconductors, nasdaq tilt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks