Treasury Fuckery
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
One-ETF-at-a-time switcher using a 7‑day strength score. If S&P 500 beats cash, hold SPY; otherwise use Treasury maturity strength to choose QQQ (big tech), SOXX (semis), or fall back to 7–10y (IEF) vs 20+y (TLT) Treasuries.
RSI = 7‑day price‑strength score. Tickers: SPY = S&P 500; BIL = T‑bills (cash); SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT = US Treasuries 1–3y/3–7y/7–10y/20+y; QQQ = big tech; SOXX = semiconductors.
If SPY’s RSI > BIL’s: hold SPY. Else if SHY’s RSI < IEI’s: hold QQQ. Else if IEI’s RSI > IEF’s: hold SOXX. Else: hold IEF if its RSI < TLT’s; otherwise TLT.
Out-of-sample, this strategy shows higher annualized returns (~28.1% vs SPY’s 22.3%), with Sharpe ~0.96 and Calmar ~0.74. But drawdowns are larger (~38% vs SPY’s ~19%). Seek higher upside with greater volatility tolerance.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 | 0.98 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 542.65% | 10.46% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.6 | |
| 1,353.78% | 15.38% | 11.34% | 14.76% | 0.71 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$145,377.95Regulatory Fees
$1,253.83
Total Slippage
$8,447.77
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 22, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, single-asset rotation, treasuries curve, us equities, tech tilt, semiconductors
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks