Treasury Fuckery
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A one-position market-timing strategy that uses very short-term Treasury bond signals to choose between broad U.S. stocks, big tech, semiconductor stocks, or Treasury bonds.
This strategy holds just one investment at a time.
It first asks: have big U.S. stocks (SPY) been stronger lately than ultra-safe Treasury bills (BIL)? If yes, it buys SPY.
If not, it reads the U.S. Treasury bond market for clues. Depending on which part of the Treasury market has been stronger over the last 7 trading days, it switches into either QQQ (big tech), SOXX (chip stocks), IEF (medium-term Treasurys), or TLT (long-term Treasurys).
Adaptive one-position rotation delivering about 23.3% out-of-sample annual return vs SPY’s 20.3%. Treasury-driven signals rotate you among SPY, QQQ, SOXX, or Treasuries for higher upside — but expect larger drawdowns than SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.99 | 0.6 | 0.77 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 624.91% | 10.76% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.62 | |
| 1,303.92% | 14.6% | -23.04% | -26.51% | 0.67 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$140,392.18Regulatory Fees
$1,142.54
Total Slippage
$9,974.70
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 22, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, momentum, treasury signals, equity rotation, bonds, sector rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks