TQQQ or trends and BIL
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About
Two-sleeve, daily strategy that rides tech uptrends with TQQQ and quickly steps aside to T‑Bills or a short hedge when risk rises. Uses simple trend/RSI/volatility/bond signals; when not in TQQQ, it rotates into the strongest sectors. Very high risk.
It splits your money into two rule-sets. Both try to own TQQQ (a 3x Nasdaq-100 fund) when trends are up, and move to BIL (T‑Bills) or a short hedge when risk rises.
Signals used: trend (price vs 25‑day average), heat/cold (RSI: 0–100 ‘hot/cold’ meter; >~80 overheated, <~30 washed‑out), big drops (e.g., −12% in 6 days), and bond risk. If not in TQQQ, one sleeve rotates into the strongest ETFs/stocks (favoring smaller recent drawdowns); the other just holds BIL. Daily rebalance. Uses 3x ETFs (high risk).
Out-of-sample upside is compelling: ~50% annualized return vs SPY ~23%, with a Calmar ~1.19 and built-in risk controls. Expect higher volatility and drawdowns (~42% vs ~19%), but potential for strong tech-led gains.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | 1.4 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 177.53% | 14.93% | -4.19% | -3.74% | 0.8 | |
| 567,708.86% | 224.83% | -14.82% | -12.27% | 2.16 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$56,780,886.42Regulatory Fees
$184,311.85
Total Slippage
$1,299,455.70
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 8, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, trend + momentum + mean reversion, risk-on/off, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 30 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KLAC
KLA Corporation Common Stock
Stocks
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co.
Stocks
MSTR
Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A
Stocks
NVDA
Nvidia Corp
Stocks
NVO
Novo-Nordisk A/S
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks