TQQQ or trends and BIL
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, rule-based system that blends momentum, mean-reversion and regime-aware hedging to tilt between leveraged Nasdaq exposure (TQQQ) and risk-off positions (cash/bonds). It scores a large universe and buys the top 3 by moving-average performance, while using RSI, drawdown limits, and market regimes to manage risk and adapt to volatility.
- Every day the system evaluates a big map of signals to decide between up-tilt (Nasdaq leverage) or risk-off (cash/bonds).
- It uses momentum signals on assets like TQQQ, SPY, QQQ, SOXL, SOXS, and bond proxies (BND, IEF, TMF, TLT) to gauge whether markets are trending up or down and whether volatility is high.
- When momentum is strong and volatility is manageable, the algorithm leans into leveraged Nasdaq exposure (TQQQ).
- If volatility surges or momentum weakens, it tilts toward safer assets (cash via BIL, or bonds via IEF/TLT).
- A “Simple sorter” ranks a large universe (including QQQ, sector ETFs like XLRE, XLB, XLC, XLP, XLY, XLU, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLK, XLE and select stocks like LLY, KLAC, MSTR, AMAT, NVDA, NVO, SCHD, SCHG) and selects the top 3 based on moving-average performance and risk filters (e.g., max drawdown over chosen windows).
- The rules embed regime checks (Normal market vs Huge volatility) and pairing logic (e.g., bond- vs stock-based signals, TQQQ vs BND SPY comparisons) to adapt exposure to changing market conditions.
- The system rebalances daily, preserving liquidity and allowing quick stance shifts as regimes flip. The RSI (momentum) and relative-strength logic are used to confirm or challenge signals, and hedges like UVXY (volatility futures) are referenced in some branches to assess risk of a volatility spike, though some paths replace UVXY with alternative hedges (e.g., SOXS) depending on the regime.
Out-of-sample upside is compelling: ~50.5% annualized return vs SPY ~23.2%, with Calmar ~1.19 and Sharpe ~0.93. A daily momentum-regime hedging system tilts to Nasdaq leverage when conditions are favorable and shifts to cash/bonds to tame risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.16 | 1.41 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 182.35% | 15.31% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.82 | |
| 648,274.09% | 233.57% | -0.02% | 7.15% | 2.2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$64,837,408.82Regulatory Fees
$179,752.03
Total Slippage
$1,267,188.72
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 8, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum, trend-following, cross-asset, volatility hedging, risk management, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 30 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KLAC
KLA Corporation Common Stock
Stocks
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co.
Stocks
MSTR
Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A
Stocks
NVDA
Nvidia Corp
Stocks
NVO
Novo-Nordisk A/S
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks