A market-timing strategy that usually bets hard on TQQQ, a leveraged Nasdaq fund, but moves into bonds or defensive sectors when the market looks overheated or weak.

This strategy is mostly a yes/no decision about whether to own TQQQ, a very aggressive fund tied to big Nasdaq stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. First it checks whether the overall U.S. stock market is in a healthy long-term trend using SPY. If yes, it usually buys TQQQ. If the market looks too overheated, it temporarily moves into one defensive area such as bonds, utilities, or consumer staples. If the broad market trend looks weak, it becomes pickier. It only buys TQQQ when stocks look washed out enough for a possible rebound, or when short-term price action still looks supportive. Otherwise it hides in one defensive holding.

Out-of-sample edge: ~26% annualized return vs ~13% for SPY, Calmar ~0.78. Disciplined, trend-following tilt that captures big upside in up markets while rotating defensives to limit losses—aims to beat the S&P over time.