TQQQ or not/Pop + Volatility checks
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A rules‑based strategy that mostly rides TQQQ in uptrends, parks in T‑Bills when risk rises, and briefly flips to UVXY when markets look overheated or after fast pops. It uses heat gauges (RSI), trend filters, recent‑drop checks, and bond signals as brakes.
Core: ride TQQQ (a 3x Nasdaq‑100 fund) in uptrends; hide in BIL (T‑Bills) when risk spikes; briefly flip to UVXY (a volatility fund) when markets look overheated.
Rules: 1) If TQQQ or several sectors look “hot” (RSI: a 0–100 heat gauge) or after a >5.5% 1‑day pop, go to UVXY. 2) If TQQQ fell >12% in 6 days, buy the dip only if very “cold”; else use BIL. 3) Otherwise: if QQQ > its 25‑day average and recent worst drop is small, hold TQQQ; else use bond trend checks (BND, IEF vs TLT) to choose TQQQ or BIL.
Out-of-sample, this strategy beats the S&P on risk-adjusted return: Sharpe ~1.09 vs ~0.98, Calmar ~1.67, and ~66% annualized return vs ~17%. It rides TQQQ in uptrends, parks in T-bills when risky, with selective UVXY hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | 0.69 | 0.04 | 0.2 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 511.42% | 13.89% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.86 | |
| 890,232,018.45% | 215.77% | -1.65% | 3.49% | 2.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$89,023,211,845.36Regulatory Fees
$247,141,710.93
Total Slippage
$1,777,764,497.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 8, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical leveraged equity, volatility hedge, trend-following, mean reversion, bond risk signals, market timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks