TQQQ or Not - Slightly Degenerate Gambler Version -
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily switcher that either rides TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100) or hides in T‑bills and “fear” ETFs. It buys TQQQ in uptrends or after washed‑out drops, and goes defensive when momentum is overheated or stress signals rise.
Each day it picks: TQQQ (a fund that moves ~3x the Nasdaq‑100), BIL (T‑bills, cash‑like), or UVXY/VIXY (funds that jump when fear spikes). If TQQQ just ran too hot, it hides in BIL+UVXY+VIXY. After big drops, it buys TQQQ only if signs look washed‑out; else it hedges. In calm times it buys TQQQ when the trend is up; if not, it stays in BIL unless bond signals hint at a rebound.
Out-of-sample shows ~23.8% annual return vs 22.2% for the S&P, with dynamic Nasdaq-100 exposure and hedges to cap risk. Strong upside; note larger drawdowns in crises.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | 1.1 | 0.18 | 0.42 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 681.5% | 15.36% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.94 | |
| 4,617,073.16% | 110.99% | 4.53% | -7.44% | 1.91 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$461,717,315.71Regulatory Fees
$1,351,503.63
Total Slippage
$9,699,315.21
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 14, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend following, mean reversion, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, nasdaq-100
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks