TQQQ or not - Replace UVXY w/ VXX
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily tactical, rule-based strategy that toggles exposure to TQQQ (a 3x Nasdaq-100 ETF) vs. hedges/cash/bonds using RSI, momentum, volatility, and bond-versus-stock signals, with UVXY replaced by VXX for volatility hedging. It seeks upside in calm markets and risk reduction during stress via multi-asset, multi-signal checks.
- The system re-evaluates every trading day and decides whether to tilt toward TQQQ (a 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF) or to hedge/hold cash/bonds.
- The core decision hinges on multiple signals, including:
• A short-term momentum/overbought check: the 10-day RSI of TQQQ compared to a high threshold (e.g., above 79). If this is true, the strategy considers hedging paths.
• A volatility/market-stress check: conditions around the VXX (volatility proxy) and the recent return history of TQQQ (cumulative returns over short windows) to flag “Huge volatility” regimes.
• A mean-reversion bond signal: a “BondSignal” that weighs bond behavior (e.g., BND, IEF, TMF, TLT, BIL) against stock proxies (e.g., SPY, QQQ) to assess whether bonds should dominate the current allocation.
• Normal market checks: using short-term cash proxies (BIL) and bond proxies to gauge whether risk is low enough to hold more stock exposure.
• Additional cross-asset filters: moving-average comparisons (current price vs a moving average), standard-deviation/volatility checks, and drawdown checks (e.g., max drawdown windows like 10–252 days) to time entries/exits.
- TQQQ exposure is not a static 100% bet. The code shows weighted branches (e.g., 85/100 or 50/100) depending on the regime and signals, sometimes allocating to cash or bonds, sometimes routing to the volatility hedge (VXX) or to a stock proxy (TQQQ/QQQ) based on the interplay of signals.
- The top-of-file name notes “Replace UVXY w/ VXX,” reflecting a shift from one volatility instrument to another, with the same intent of hedging risk when volatility spikes.
- The result is a dynamic, regime-aware tilt: aim for upside when risk is low and momentum supports TQQQ, and shift toward hedges and safer assets when volatility or unfavorable signals dominate.
- Important caveats: levered ETFs can underperform in choppy markets, hedges may not perfectly offset risk, and the exact outcomes depend on parameter choices and market regime duration.
Dynamic, regime-aware strategy that tilts toward TQQQ in calm markets and hedges risk in volatility. Out-of-sample: ~38.7% annualized return vs SPY's 22.8%, with diversified risk controls—though drawdowns can be larger in stress periods.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 0.97 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172.29% | 13.1% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.73 | |
| 723,022.94% | 197.97% | -1.65% | -6.11% | 2.25 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$72,312,294.41Regulatory Fees
$228,044.35
Total Slippage
$1,626,626.95
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 6, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity, volatility hedging, tactical allocation, risk management, multi-asset
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VXX
iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN
Stocks