TQQQ or Not - Non-Degen Gambler Variant
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, risk-controlled tactical strategy that tries to ride the Nasdaq-100 with 3x leverage (TQQQ) when signals look favorable, but shifts to cash (BIL) or bonds (BND/TMF/IEF/TLT) to limit losses when risk rises. It uses momentum (RSI), recent performance, and drawdown checks to decide between TQQQ exposure, cash, or bonds, with a target ~10% cash position during risk-off periods.
- Every day, the system decides where your money goes between TQQQ, cash (BIL), and bonds (BND, TMF, IEF, TLT).
- If Nasdaq momentum is extremely strong and overbought (RSI of TQQQ over 79), it shifts to cash (BIL) to avoid a likely pullback.
- If not in cash, it checks for signs of big volatility or risk in multiple ways (one-day gains, trend strength, drawdowns, and bond-vs-stock signals). Depending on these, it may stay in TQQQ, or tilt toward bonds, or move to cash.
- There is an explicit target cash allocation of about 10% when the model signals risk-off. The remaining allocation goes to the asset(s chosen by the rules (mostly TQQQ when conditions are favorable, or bonds/cash when not).
- The design uses a mix of momentum (RSI), recent performance (cumulative returns), and risk (drawdowns) to balance upside capture with drawdown protection.
- The system is meant to be tuned to avoid “degenerate” outcomes (huge losses in big down markets) by preferring cash/bond hedges when risk appears elevated.
Higher upside with Nasdaq-100 leverage and built-in risk controls. Targeting ~27.7% annualized vs SPY's ~23.2%, using daily signals and ~10% cash hedges to curb losses - accept more volatility and drawdowns for potential gains.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.39 | 1.44 | 0.38 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 707.4% | 13.92% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.85 | |
| 415,489.72% | 68.2% | -1.65% | -6.11% | 1.49 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$41,558,971.58Regulatory Fees
$119,522.37
Total Slippage
$841,940.06
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leverage, tactical asset allocation, momentum/trend, risk management, multi-asset diversification
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks