TQQQ or Not - Non-Degen Gambler Variant
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A defensive market-timing strategy that only holds TQQQ when trend and stress signals look supportive; otherwise it parks in short-term Treasury bills via BIL.
This strategy makes a daily yes/no decision: either own TQQQ or hide in BIL.
It buys TQQQ only when several checks say conditions are favorable: the market is not too overheated, recent drops are not too severe, and bond-market stress signals look calm. It also buys some sharp dips, trying to catch rebounds.
If markets look shaky or overextended, it moves to BIL instead.
Out-of-sample: 24.5% annualized return vs 20.8% for the S&P, thanks to selective 3x Nasdaq exposure with a cash overlay (BIL) in stress. Higher upside, but drawdowns can exceed the S&P in tough periods.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.38 | 1.44 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 830.14% | 14.32% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.87 | |
| 499,744.64% | 66.72% | -9.61% | -7.8% | 1.47 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$49,984,463.51Regulatory Fees
$132,904.36
Total Slippage
$1,250,111.13
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged nasdaq, market timing, trend following, mean reversion, risk management, bond-signal overlay, tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks