TQQQ or Not - Non-Degen Gambler Variant
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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About
A daily on/off switch for TQQQ: ride Nasdaq uptrends, hide in T‑bills when markets look overheated, shaky, or bonds are stressed. Mixes “heat” (RSI), trend vs average, drawdowns, and stock‑bond signals to time risk.
Daily, it flips between TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100) and BIL (T‑bills). It avoids TQQQ if it’s overheated (RSI: a 0–100 “heat” score; high=hot, low=washed‑out) or if recent peak‑to‑trough drops/volatility are high.
If price trends above its 25‑day average, it holds TQQQ. After sharp falls, it may buy TQQQ when washed‑out (low RSI) unless there’s a huge one‑day bounce. It also checks stock‑vs‑bond strength, favoring TQQQ when falling yields aid tech.
Out-of-sample shows 27.7% annualized vs 23.2% for the S&P, using a daily risk-on/risk-off switch to ride Nasdaq uptrends and park in T-bills when overheated. Potential for bigger gains, but with higher drawdowns and lower risk-adjusted Sharpe.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.39 | 1.44 | 0.38 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 720.06% | 14.06% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.85 | |
| 435,122.95% | 68.86% | 4.53% | -7.44% | 1.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$43,522,295.11Regulatory Fees
$116,032.72
Total Slippage
$817,016.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend following, mean reversion, risk management, nasdaq-100, leveraged etf, t-bills
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks