TQQQ or Not - Non-Degen Gambler Variant
Today’s Change (Feb 9, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily switch between TQQQ (3× Nasdaq‑100) and BIL (cash). It buys TQQQ on uptrends or controlled mean‑reversion and hides in cash when markets are too hot, crashing, or bonds are stressed—using stock and bond momentum/drawdown signals for confirmation.
Daily it holds either TQQQ (3× Nasdaq‑100) or BIL (T‑bill cash). If TQQQ is very hot (10‑day RSI>79; RSI=0–100 momentum), it stays in BIL. After big drops (>13% in 6 days), it avoids big snapbacks (>6% day) and buys TQQQ only if it’s cold (RSI<32) or long Treasuries aren’t stressed. Otherwise: if QQQ or long Treasuries had big 10‑day drops, use BIL; if QQQ is above its 25‑day average, buy TQQQ; else buy TQQQ only when bonds (BND, TLT>IEF) beat stocks (SPY).
Out-of-sample, this tactical sleeve targets Nasdaq upside with rule-based risk-off. It delivers higher OOS annualized return (27.7% vs 23.2% for the S&P) and a solid risk-adjusted profile (Calmar ~0.78) via cash hedges and cross-asset checks.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4 | 1.43 | 0.38 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 731.27% | 14.23% | -0.17% | 3.34% | 0.86 | |
| 442,027.87% | 69.43% | -6.55% | -9.99% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$44,212,786.62Regulatory Fees
$116,032.36
Total Slippage
$817,018.20
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend + momentum, mean reversion, crash filter, leveraged etf, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks