TQQQ or not
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rule-based rotation between leveraged Nasdaq exposure (TQQQ), a volatility hedge (UVXY), cash, and bonds, driven by momentum and regime signals to balance upside with risk.
Each day, the system asks: (1) Is Nasdaq-100 momentum extremely stretched? If RSI(10) of TQQQ is very high (above 79), buy UVXY to hedge against a volatility spike. If not, look for a 1-day jump in TQQQ (over 5.5%) which also signals volatility risk and may favor UVXY. (2) If momentum isn’t extreme but price action hints a pullback is likely (RSI(10) of TQQQ under 32), tilt toward TQQQ (mean-reversion to a more normal level). (3) If conditions look calmer, the code checks whether bonds look relatively stronger than stocks (bond RSI over stock RSI), and if so, favors cash or bond exposures (BIL, TMF, BND, IEF, TLT) rather than equity leverage. (4) If market is in a ‘Normal market’ regime, you’ll see a mixture of bond-like positioning or cash with occasional stock tilt depending on the detailed sub-conditions (max drawdown, standard deviation, moving-average checks). The assets involved are TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100), UVXY (volatility futures), BIL (short-term cash-equivalent), QQQ, SPY, TMF (long Treasuries), BND (total bond market), IEF (mid-term Treasuries), and TLT (long Treasuries). Rebalancing happens daily, and each regime (Huge volatility, Normal market, Bond-favorable) has its own recommended weight. The overall logic is to chase upside when conditions look favorable, but to protect against sharp volatility or regime change by moving into hedges or cash and by rotating into bonds when stocks look relatively expensive or risky.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~39.5% vs S&P ~22.4%, driven by a daily rule-based rotation among leveraged Nasdaq, volatility hedges, cash, and bonds. Targets bigger upside with regime-shift risk controls—though drawdowns can be larger.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | 1.02 | 0.11 | 0.34 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 39,417,105.11% | 144.42% | -1.65% | -6.11% | 2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,941,720,511.44Regulatory Fees
$12,209,361.06
Total Slippage
$87,803,676.91
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 29, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical-allocation, leverage, volatility-hedge, bond-rotation, regime-switching
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks