TQQQ On Or Off
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Aggressive when the stock trend is calm and up (heavy TQQQ); shifts to safer assets (VIXY/TMF/IEI) when markets get jumpy; and uses a special basket during rising-rate backdrops. Tech/growth and interest-rate exposures dominate; risk is high due to leverage.
It’s a rules-based switch. First, it checks short-term Treasuries (SHY). If SHY is weak vs its long-term average (rates rising), it holds a mix of: TMV (bet against long bonds), QLD (2x Nasdaq), and TECS (bet against tech), sized toward the calmer one.
Otherwise it looks at stocks: if swings are big, it goes defensive (75% in whichever is surging more—VIXY “fear” or TMF long bonds—plus 25% in IEI Treasuries). If swings are calm: in an uptrend it puts ~75% in TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) and keeps the rest in cash; if not in an uptrend it splits between QQQ (Nasdaq) and SSO (2x S&P 500).
Out-of-sample edge: ~47.5% annualized return with Calmar ~1 and Sharpe ~1.01 vs the S&P. Tech-growth in uptrends; defensive pivots in bursts. Drawdowns up to ~48%—for investors with higher risk tolerance chasing strong growth.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 17, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend-following, volatility filter, regime switching, leveraged etfs, tech-heavy, treasuries, vix exposure
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TECS
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks