A rule-based crash-protection strategy that toggles between hedges (UVXY, BSV, SQQQ) and leveraged longs (TQQQ, SPXL, TECL) using a SPY trend check (200-day MA) and RSI signals on TQQQ/SQQQ to decide when to protect vs. pursue growth. It starts in cash, then layers in assets as signals permit, with an 8% rebalancing corridor to avoid over-trading.

- What it tries to do: protect a growth-focused tilt (in this case, TQQQ-based exposure) from big drawdowns by using hedges and safer assets when danger signals appear, while still seeking upside when the market looks healthy. - The main ingredients: UVXY (volatility hedge), BSV (short-term bonds as a defensive core), SPXL/TECL/TQQQ (leveraged long bets), and SQQQ (inverse Nasdaq for downside hedging). - How it decides: it first checks whether the market is in an uptrend by looking at SPY’s price relative to its 200-day average. If SPY is above the average, the strategy may tilt toward growth; if not, it leans more defensive. - It uses momentum screens on the leveraged Nasdaq ETF (TQQQ) and its inverse (SQQQ) via a 10-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). Very high RSI on TQQQ (for example above about 79) signals potential overbought risk and can push allocations toward hedges (like UVXY and BSV) to reduce potential losses. Very low RSI on key momentum assets (for instance below about 31) signals oversold conditions and can push allocations toward aggressive longs (e.g., TECL, SPXL) to capture a rebound. - In some branches, the system places a defined 70/30 split: 70% into BSV (defensive) and 30% into a levered long or selected asset (e.g., TECL if TQQQ RSI is low, otherwise SPXL depending on other signals). This split aims to combine a safe base with a potential upside kicker. - There are nested “if/else” blocks that can pick between different assets depending on the precise readings of RSI and moving-average rules, including a top-pick mechanism that ranks candidates by relative strength and picks the single best candidate. - What this means for you: in calm markets, you might see some exposure to leveraged long ETFs that aim for high upside; in stressed markets, the allocation shifts toward UVXY and BSV to dampen losses. The design favors a methodical drift toward hedges when volatility and downtrends appear and drifting toward growth when signals point to continued uptrends. - Important caveats: leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses and can suffer from decay if held over longer periods; UVXY tends to be volatile and can lose value even in rising markets if not used with clear triggers; the complexity means it’s not a “set it and forget it” strategy and requires monitoring and discipline. - In short: this strategy is a crash-protection plan that dynamically mixes defensive hedges with selective leveraged longs based on trend and momentum signals, aiming to reduce losses in a crash while still capturing upside when the market recovers.

Out-of-sample, this strategy shows stronger risk-adjusted upside than the S&P: Sharpe ~1.30 vs ~1.23, Calmar ~1.61, and ~66% annualized return vs ~21%. It hedges downturns but may incur larger drawdowns (~41% vs ~19%).