TQQQ Kill-Switch (QQQ Trend)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
All-in on TQQQ if QQQ is above its 200-day average and up over the last 60 days; otherwise switch to SGOV for safety. Rebalanced weekly to capture NASDAQ upside in strong uptrends and protect capital in weaker conditions.
What it does in plain language:
- The strategy watches two things about the NASDAQ-100 to decide what to own.
- QQQ tracks a broad slice of tech-heavy stocks. If QQQ is in an uptrend and momentum is positive, the strategy goes all-in on TQQQ, which aims to amplify NASDAQ gains (it’s a 3x leveraged version of QQQ).
- If QQQ isn’t in an uptrend or hasn’t risen in the last 60 days, the strategy goes all-in on SGOV, which holds very short-term U.S. government bonds and is designed to be safer and less volatile.
- It rebalances just once a week, switching between the two options only, with no mix of the two.
- Key signals explained in simple terms:
• 200-day moving average (200SMA): the average closing price over roughly the last 200 trading days. If current price is above this line, the market is considered to be in a longer-term uptrend.
• 60-day return: how much QQQ has gained (or lost) over the last about 3 months. If this is positive, QQQ has momentum to the upside.
- Why these two signals? They try to identify when the NASDAQ-100 is both trending up and moving up recently, which the plan translates into taking on more risk for potentially bigger gains via TQQQ. If not, the plan shifts to SGOV to protect capital.
- Important notes for laymen:
• TQQQ is a leveraged ETF, meaning it can magnify gains and losses and can underperform in non-trending markets due to daily compounding.
• SGOV is a bond ETF holding short-term Treasuries, generally less volatile and more protective when stocks are mixed or falling.
• This is a binary, all-in/all-out approach: you either own TQQQ or SGOV, not a blend.
• Taxes, fees, and bid-ask spreads aren’t covered here; in practice they affect results.
Seeks superior NASDAQ upside with binary risk control: 100% TQQQ when trend+momentum are positive, else 100% SGOV for safety. Out-of-sample: ~33.5% annualized vs ~18.9% for the S&P, Calmar ~1.46 indicating strong risk-adjusted capture.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.11 | 1.54 | 0.34 | 0.58 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140.2% | 16.35% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.97 | |
| 364.2% | 30.39% | -0.03% | 4.87% | 0.82 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$46,419.68Regulatory Fees
$26.79
Total Slippage
$169.02
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 25, 2025
Trading Setting
Weekly
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/risk-off, trend-following, leveraged etf, tactical allocation, capital preservation