TQQQ FTLT using KMLM for confirmation before going full leverage
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A fast, rules‑based plan to ride 3x tech (TQQQ) only when short‑term momentum truly favors it. Uses SPY’s 200‑day trend for risk, KMLM vs tech to confirm, flips to cash or Treasuries when weak, and occasionally hedges with UVXY or shorts with SQQQ. High risk.
First, check if the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day average (risk‑on) or below (risk‑off). 10‑day RSI is a 0–100 “heat meter” (>80 very hot, <30 very cold).
Risk‑on: if too hot, briefly hedge with UVXY. Otherwise, go all‑in TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100) only when tech (XLK) looks stronger than a trend fund (KMLM); else sit in T‑Bills (BIL).
Risk‑off: try quick bounces (TECL/UPRO). If still weak, choose Treasuries (TLT) or short tech (SQQQ), allowing shorts only when tech < KMLM.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.31 vs SPY 1.07; Calmar 2.62. A tech‑tilted, rule‑based strategy with regime filters and hedges aims for outsized upside (~75.8% oos annualized) while controlling risk vs. the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.19 | 0.9 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96.31% | 13.99% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.86 | |
| 42,754.72% | 224.33% | 0.27% | 1.2% | 2.45 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,285,471.82Regulatory Fees
$6,983.29
Total Slippage
$46,167.21
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, momentum, leveraged etfs, regime filter, volatility hedge, tactical, managed futures confirmation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks