TQQQ FTLT using KMLM for confirmation before going full leverage
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About
An aggressive tech-trading strategy that goes hard into TQQQ only when tech looks stronger than a market-stress gauge (KMLM), and otherwise shifts to volatility, bonds, short positions, or cash-like T-bills.
This strategy is an aggressive market-timer built mostly around big bets on tech.
It first asks: is the overall U.S. stock market in a healthy long-term uptrend? If yes, it usually buys TQQQ, a fund that magnifies moves in the Nasdaq, but only if technology is acting stronger than KMLM, a managed-futures fund that often shines when markets are stressed. If stocks look too overheated, it switches to UVXY, a volatility fund.
If the market is not in a healthy uptrend, it becomes defensive. It may try to catch a rebound with leveraged stock funds, move into long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), short the Nasdaq with SQQQ, or simply sit in very short-term Treasury bills (BIL).
Out-of-sample edge: 54% annualized return vs 17% for the S&P; Sharpe ~1.09 vs ~1.07; Calmar ~1.68. Tech-heavy, timing-driven strategy with macro-risk controls; stronger risk-adjusted upside despite higher drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | 0.98 | 0.09 | 0.3 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121.43% | 14.62% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.91 | |
| 48,313.58% | 189.01% | -17.38% | -16.98% | 2.25 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$4,841,358.29Regulatory Fees
$9,786.51
Total Slippage
$84,827.83
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged equity, tactical asset allocation, market timing, tech-focused, risk-on/risk-off, managed-futures confirmation, defensive bonds
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks