TQQQ FTLT using KMLM before going full leverage V2
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
A switch‑based, tech‑centric strategy. It gates on the S&P 500 trend, then uses a short‑term heat meter and a KMLM vs tech strength check to choose between 3x long tech, 3x short tech, Treasuries, or a short‑term volatility play.
1) Big picture check: Are US stocks healthy? If the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day average, it’s “risk‑on.” If not, it’s “risk‑off.”
2) In risk‑on: If short‑term heat is extreme, switch to UVXY (a volatility bet). Otherwise, pick TQQQ (3x tech) or SQQQ (−3x tech) by comparing tech’s short‑term strength (XLK) to a trend gauge called KMLM (a managed‑futures ETF).
3) In risk‑off: If things look washed‑out, buy the dip with TECL (3x tech) or UPRO (3x S&P). If not, rotate to long Treasuries (TLT) or short tech (SQQQ) based on which is stronger short‑term.
RSI = a 0–100 “hot/cold” meter; >~80 very hot, <~30 very cold.
Out-of-sample edge: ~70% annualized return vs SPY 18.6%; Sharpe ~1.15 vs 1.06; Calmar ~2.43. Drawdowns higher (~28.8% vs ~18.8%), but regime-driven, momentum-based tech exposure targets superior, risk-adjusted growth vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | 0.04 | 0 | 0.01 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98.18% | 14.57% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.88 | |
| 77,995.58% | 276.12% | -9.06% | -12.93% | 2.37 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$7,809,557.85Regulatory Fees
$12,754.25
Total Slippage
$87,373.48
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, momentum, mean reversion, regime filter, tech-focused, volatility, treasuries
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks