A rule-based, adaptive strategy that shifts between leveraged bets and cash to navigate sideways markets, using momentum (RSI), trend (moving averages), and performance screens to tilt exposures and protect capital.

What this strategy aims to do: profit from market moves while protecting capital when the market isn’t clearly trending. What RSI and moving averages mean in plain language: RSI is a momentum gauge that tries to say whether an asset has recently become overbought (too expensive) or oversold (too cheap). A moving average is a smoothed price line that helps identify the general direction (is the price above the line, suggesting uptrend, or below it, suggesting downtrend). How the system uses these ideas: - It watches a set of assets (including Nasdaq-focused funds like QQQ and leveraged plays such as TQQQ, QLD, TECL, SOXL, and their inverse/hedge relatives UVXY, SQQQ, PSQ). - If momentum signals are positive and the price is above a rising trend line (a moving-average check), it tends to favor leveraged bets to try to capture bigger gains (e.g., TQQQ, TECL, SOXL, QLD). It also uses a ranking rule to pick the strongest performers and may tilt toward a couple of top assets. - If momentum signals weaken or the market looks choppy (RSI in weaker zones, price not confirming a trend), it pivots toward cash or hedges, and may even favor inverse or volatility-related ETFs to protect capital (e.g., UVXY, SQQQ). - A separate “Sideways Market Deleverage” pathway actively reduces risk when there’s no clear uptrend, often pulling back exposure to major indices (e.g., SPY, QQQ) and rotating into less aggressive or hedged positions. - There are specific top-N and group-based filters to avoid concentration risk and diversify across sectors (notably Tech and Semiconductors). - The model sizes positions with a 60/40 cash-equity vibe and uses a small risk corridor (0.05) to keep allocations within conservative bounds. - Rebalancing is not done on a fixed schedule; actions are driven by the signals hitting certain thresholds. Overall, it’s a multi-layer, rule-based system designed to adapt to a sideways market by combining momentum, trend confirmation, and risk controls with a mix of leveraged and hedged assets.

Out of sample, this adaptive strategy targets big upside (approx. 83% annualized) with higher risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ≈1.45, Calmar ≈1.63) vs the S&P, plus hedging and de-leveraging in sideways markets to protect capital.