TQQQ FTLT OVERFIT (255.2% RR/46.4% Max DD)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A cash-first, rule-based strategy that uses RSI and trend signals to tilt into leveraged tech/semis bets in up markets, while hedging with volatility and defensive assets when signals flip. Weighting is typically heavy on one levered ETF (often 90/10) and may include UVXY as a volatility signal plus defensive bets like TMF/BSV/SCHD when risk rises.
Plain-language description of how the strategy operates:
- What it tries to do: Seek big upside in a rising market by using a small number of highly leveraged ETFs, while keeping an eye on volatility and trend so risk is contained. It uses cash as a starting point and only puts money to work when signals look favorable.
- Signals it watches:
- RSI (a momentum gauge) on several ETFs (especially UVXY, TQQQ, SQQQ, UPRO, TECL, SOXL, SPY, etc.). Very high RSI readings imply the asset has run up a lot recently and may be due for a pullback; very low RSI readings imply it may bounce.
- Trend check with SPY: is the price above its 200-day moving average? If yes, the market is considered in an uptrend and more aggressive bets become available. If no, the strategy tilts toward hedges/defensives.
- Additional moving-average comparisons (for example, current prices versus moving averages over shorter windows like 20 days) to decide on minor tilt directions.
- How it allocates when signals line up:
- In a clean uptrend (SPY above its 200-day average) and when volatility signals aren’t extremely overheated, it tends to tilt toward high-growth, leveraged ETFs in tech and semiconductors (e.g., TQQQ for Nasdaq exposure and SOXL for semis) with a strong weight (often 90% in one asset and 10% in another).
- It uses UVXY (a volatility hedge) as a signal: if UVXY’s momentum is extremely high (suggesting rising volatility), this can trigger a hedge or reduce outright equity exposure rather than doubling down on riskier levered bets.
- If volatility signals are extreme or if the market isn’t clearly in an uptrend, the strategy shifts to more defensive or diversified assets (e.g., TMF for long treasuries, BSV for short-term bonds, SCHD for quality dividends) or even a lighter tilt among alternative leaders.
- What you actually own (typical patterns): a small number of ETFs with explicit weights when signals fire. Examples seen in the plan include heavy weighting to: ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) and ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) as signal-driven pieces, as well as secondary allocations to SOXL, TECL, UPRO, SQQQ, and occasional top picks selected from a short list based on momentum. When the system chooses a “top” asset, it may pick a single ETF with a large tilt (e.g., 90%) and a smaller secondary asset (10%) to diversify risk within the aggressive sleeve.
- Rebalancing: there is a defined rebalancing rule set (rebalance corridor width) but the plan can run in a mode described as “rebalance none” unless the signals explicitly require a change. In practice this means: don’t expect routine, calendar-based rebalancing; you only adjust when the decision tree triggers a change.
- What happens in practice: during a favorable uptrend with reasonable volatility, you’ll see big bets on leveraged growth ETFs, aiming for outsized gains. If you see signs of overheating (high RSI on UVXY or a breakdown of trend), the system leans into hedges or more stable assets to protect against a drawdown. The approach blends aggressive growth bets with risk-management hedges and defensive allocations to navigate different market regimes.
Out-of-sample, this cash-first, signal-driven strategy targets big upside with leveraged tech bets and hedges. Annualized return ~94.6%, Sharpe ~1.42, Calmar ~1.87 vs S&P ~20.7%, Sharpe ~1.31— delivering superior risk-adjusted growth with downside protection.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | 1.53 | 0.15 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 582.82% | 14.35% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.89 | |
| 1,075,538,135.16% | 209.64% | -4.5% | -4.41% | 2.02 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$107,553,823,515.79Regulatory Fees
$74,053,248.18
Total Slippage
$532,453,367.06
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 7, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 25%
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum-based, leveraged etfs, volatility hedging, macro trend-following, dynamic asset allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
SCHD
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks