TQQQ FTLT | Full Package | Diceroll Group | Shorter Backtest v2 [FTL]
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A complex, regime-based, rules-driven strategy using leveraged tech/market ETFs with dynamic hedging. It combines moving-average/trend checks, momentum (RSI), and multi-asset ranking to pick a handful of long positions during growth periods, while shifting into hedges and safer assets in riskier periods. It’s implemented through many backtest variations and groupings to test which rules perform best.
- What it tries to do: aim to capture big gains during strong uptrends in tech/aqc assets while protecting capital when markets struggle, using a broad mix of ETFs and leveraged products. It runs many different rule-sets at once (backtests) to see which combinations performed best; the final strategy in your description is an aggregation of those rules organized into groups like Bull Market, Bear Market, Sideways Market, and Dip Buy variants.
- The universe (tickers) is a mix of popular and less-popular ETFs and leveraged products that track tech, broad market exposure, volatility, and fixed-income. Examples include QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF), SPY (S&P 500 ETF), DIA (Dow Jones ETF), UVXY (short-term VIX futures, a volatility hedge), SVXY (inverse volatility), QLD/SOXL/TECL/TQQQ/UPRO/URTY (leveraged tech/indices), SPXL (S&P 500 leveraged), TLT/TMF (long-dated Treasuries), UUP (US dollar), and several defensive or sector ETFs.
- How it decides what to hold: at a high level, the system looks at price relative to moving averages (is the market above a short- or medium-term trend?), momentum indicators like RSI (is the asset overbought or oversold?), and past performance (cumulative or moving-average returns). It then picks a small number of assets to overweight, often using a top-N selection (e.g., top 2 or top 3 assets) with weights that sum to 100. A parallel “Bear Market Sideways Protection” or similar group chooses hedges (like SQQQ, PSQ) to reduce risk in tougher regimes.
- How it handles regimes:
1) Bull Market: the code-style blocks push leveraged long exposure (e.g., TQQQ, TECL, SOXL, UPRO, SPXL) with checks that aim to confirm strength (current price vs moving-average price, RSI thresholds, and momentum signals). It may add hedges or rotate into diversified toppers but keeps a bullish tilt when signals align.
2) Bear Market/Deleveraging: the strategy shifts toward hedges and protective positions (SQQQ, PSQ, SVXY, UVXY conditioning) and reduces exposure to ultra-leveraged longs, often rebalancing toward cash-like or safer assets. There are explicit blocks like “Bear Market Sideways Protection” and “Sideways Market Deleverage” that describe de-risking moves.
3) Sideways Market: the model employs de-leverage and mix of defensive assets to avoid big drawdowns when markets trade in a range rather than trend strongly up or down.
- Position sizing and weight: you’ll see weights like 100/100 (fully invested in the chosen long), 67/33 (more long than hedge), or 25/75 for split strategies in some variants. The system also includes a “filter” stage that selects the top assets by a momentum or risk-adjusted metric (e.g., moving-average return, standard deviation, or other custom metrics) and applies a window (e.g., 10, 15, 21 days) to rank them.
- Backtesting and variants: the description contains multiple variants (Full Package, Bottom 1/Bottom 2, 20d StDev, 20d max DD, 60d lookbacks, no-K-1 tax setups, etc.). Each variant represents a different rule-tuning approach; the parent strategy likely compiles or compares these variants to choose or weight a final portfolio. The aim is to capture a broad set of possible “great ideas” and avoid relying on a single rule set.
- How a layperson could read it: think of it as a dynamic, rules-based portfolio that tries to ride up moves in tech and the broader market with leverage when signals are strong, while safeguarding against big drops with volatility hedges and bear-market shorts. It’s not a single indicator, but a large set of conditions that must align before buying or selling, and it actively recalibrates exposure as market signals change.
Out-of-sample, this regime-based, hedged strategy aims for outsized gains (about 119% annualized vs SPY ~38%), with strong risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar 6.66; Sharpe ~2.23). It trades tech leaders and uses hedges to help protect capital.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.07 | 3.07 | 0.83 | 0.91 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.88% | 26.09% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 2.05 | |
| 68.29% | 79.6% | -1.99% | 0.64% | 1.69 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$16,828.53Regulatory Fees
$17.69
Total Slippage
$101.04
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 13, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-based, leveraged etfs, momentum/rsi, moving averages, backtests, top/bottom selections, volatility hedges
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 36 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
EWZ
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
Stocks
NRGD
MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil -3x Inverse Leveraged ETNs due February 17, 2045
Stocks
NRGU
MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil 3x Leveraged ETNs due February 17, 2045
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks