Adaptive, rule-based ETF strategy using leveraged Nasdaq/tech bets with volatility hedges and cash ballast. Regime-switching between risk-on and hedged modes, driven by momentum and drawdown signals; two long-term variants (one with a BlackSwan/MeanRev bias).

What you own changes every day based on a set of simple rules. The system watches a few ETF ticks (for example: TQQQ is Nasdaq-100 on steroids; UVXY tracks market volatility; SQQQ is the opposite Nasdaq bet; SOXL is semiconductors on steroids; BIL is very short-term cash; QQQ/SPY are broad indexes). It computes easy ideas you may have heard of, like momentum (is something moving up fast?), price compared to a moving average (is the price above or below its short-term trend?), and how much money has fallen recently (drawdown). If conditions look risky or overheated, it moves money into hedges or cash proxies; if conditions look favorable, it puts more weight on the leveraged equity bets. The strategy contains two main flavors (Long-Term V2 and BlackSwan MeanRev). Each flavor uses similar signals but with slightly different emphasis on volatility hedges and mean-reversion bets. The daily process roughly follows: check risk and momentum signals; decide which group to hold (e.g., UVXY, SQQQ, or TQQQ/SOXL); apply a fixed cash ballast when not confident; rebalance toward the chosen exposure; and keep a running watch for drawdown or volatility triggers to shift again. The target is to grow capital with a bias toward long-term leveraged bets, but with built-in hedges and cash if risk metrics breach defined thresholds. Note: ticker names are real ETF symbols; a quick sense: TQQQ = 3x Nasdaq; UVXY = volatility bet; SQQQ = inverse Nasdaq; SOXL = 3x semis; TECL = 3x tech; BIL = very short-term bills; QQQ/SPY = broad market indexes; IEF/TLT/TMF/TMF = different bond exposures.

Tech-leveraged strategy with adaptive hedges offers outsized upside. Out-of-sample annualized return ~38% vs SPY ~17%, Sharpe ~0.81, Calmar ~0.98. Dynamic risk controls chase momentum and hedge risk—though drawdowns can be larger in stress.