TQQQ For The Long Term V2 (226.7% RR/46.1% Max DD)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, cash-heavy tactical strategy that picks one highly leveraged equity bet (or hedge) based on short-term momentum and market trend, with a volatility/short-bond hedge and a risk-managed, all-in-one signal approach. Expected max drawdown ~46%; aim for strong risk-adjusted upside when signals align.
- What it is: a daily, all-in-like tactical strategy that mostly keeps cash on hand and, when conditions are right, allocates to one highly leveraged ETF (or a hedge) for the day. It uses short-term momentum signals, a longer-term trend filter, and a final top-pick rule to decide which asset to own.
- How it decides what to own:
1) Trend check: Is SPY above its 200-day moving average? If no, the system tends to stay in cash or move toward hedges.
2) Momentum check: Among a set of candidates (primarily 3x leveraged ETFs and hedges such as UVXY and SQQQ), compute short-term momentum via a 10-day RSI. Some rules look for very high momentum (roughly RSI above the high-70s to low-80s) and some look for lower momentum before favoring a higher-growth asset.
3) Top pick: From the eligible pool, pick the asset with the strongest short-term momentum (highest RSI over the last 10 days).
4) Final action: If all conditions align, allocate 100% to that single selected asset for the day. If conditions aren’t met, park the capital in cash or in a risk-off asset (e.g., a short-term bond ETF or a hedge) according to the nested rules.
- What you see in practice:
- You’ll mostly see days with cash if conditions aren’t met; on favorable days, you’ll see exposure to a single levered ETF (e.g., TQQQ, SPXL, TECL) or a hedge like UVXY or SQQQ based on momentum and trend signals.
- The model relies on quick, daily decision-making rather than a long, multi-week hold, due to the nature of levered bets and volatility hedges.
- What each ticker does (layman terms):
- TQQQ: a 3x bet that the Nasdaq-100 goes up; big potential gains but also big losses if tech-heavy indices fall.
- SPXL: a 3x bet on the broad S&P 500; highest exposure to large US stocks.
- TECL: a 3x bet on technology stocks; tech is often more volatile and can move faster.
- SQQQ: inverse of QQQ; essentially a bet that tech-heavy Nasdaq goes down; used as a hedge or in risk-off moves.
- UVXY: a bet on rising market volatility; tends to spike in market turmoil and then revert.
- BSV: a short-term bond fund; used as a stabilizer when risk is high or when a safer stance is preferred.
- SPY: a broad-market proxy (S&P 500) used as a baseline for trend and as a reference for filters.
- What this means for a layperson: expect a very active, risk-tuned strategy that aims to ride a single strong levered bet on good days, while keeping a heavy emphasis on cash when the market looks risky. It’s not a buy-and-hold diversified approach; it’s a daily dial that swings toward high-risk bets only when momentum and trend filters align, with hedges and cash as a safety net.
- Overall risk profile reflected in the name: “226.7% RR/46.1% Max DD” suggests high upside potential if correct signals fire but a substantial potential drawdown if conditions deteriorate.
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return ≈91% vs SPY ≈18%; Sharpe ≈1.36; Calmar ≈1.78. Delivers strong risk-adjusted upside when signals fire, with cash hedging; note higher drawdown potential (~51% vs SPY ~19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.02 | 1.47 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 295,302,592.77% | 181.87% | -0.39% | -2.36% | 1.89 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$29,530,269,277.46Regulatory Fees
$17,015,653.28
Total Slippage
$122,389,751.87
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 24, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, momentum, trend-following, tactical allocation, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type