TQQQ For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) - tqqq/200d tqqq, BIL instead of UVXY and TQQQ intsead of TCEL for longterm backtest compare
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily rule set that toggles among TQQQ, UPRO, SQQQ, TLT, or BIL using TQQQ’s 200‑day trend and a short‑term “hot/cold” gauge (RSI). It rides tech uptrends, steps aside when overheated, and in downtrends either plays quick bounces or shifts to inverse tech or Treasuries.
Each day it looks at TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100) versus its 200‑day average to decide “uptrend” or “downtrend.” It also uses a 10‑day RSI, a short‑term “hot/cold” meter from 0–100 (high=too hot, low=too cold). Uptrend: usually hold TQQQ; if things look too hot, sit in BIL (T‑Bills). Downtrend: try quick bounces via TQQQ or UPRO (3x S&P 500) when very cold; otherwise use SQQQ (3x short Nasdaq) or TLT (long Treasuries), whichever looks firmer.
Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 1.54 vs 1.16; Calmar ~4.14; annualized return ~117% vs ~21%; max drawdown ~28% vs ~19%. Dynamic rotation across leveraged tech, broad market and bonds targets higher growth with smarter risk than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | 1.65 | 0.24 | 0.49 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 633.34% | 13.93% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.85 | |
| 2,734,324.69% | 95.2% | -15.4% | -17.07% | 1.45 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$273,442,469.14Regulatory Fees
$331,067.48
Total Slippage
$2,370,551.32
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 7, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, nasdaq-100, s&p 500, treasuries, trend + mean reversion, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total