TQQQ For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) - BIL instead of UVXY and TQQQ intsead of TCEL for longterm backtest compare
Today’s Change (Aug 7, 2026)
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About
Rules‑based, daily switch among TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100), BIL (cash‑like), UPRO (3x S&P 500), SQQQ (3x short Nasdaq‑100), and TLT (long Treasuries) using a long‑term trend filter plus short‑term “hot/cold” readings to ride tech‑led uptrends and defend in downturns.
First check if the S&P 500 is in a long‑term uptrend (price > 200‑day average). If yes, hold TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100) unless short‑term is very “hot” (RSI, a 0‑100 heat score) — then park in BIL (T‑bills). If no, buy oversold dips in TQQQ/UPRO (3x S&P 500); otherwise switch to SQQQ (3x short Nasdaq‑100) or TLT (long US Treasuries). Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample annualized return ~73.6% vs SPY ~20.4%, Calmar ~1.45, Sharpe ~1.18. A regime-switching, rules-based approach rides Nasdaq uptrends and defends drawdowns, delivering higher risk-adjusted growth than the S&P 500 with disciplined risk controls.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | 1.78 | 0.28 | 0.53 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 792.12% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 5% | 0.87 | |
| 10,284,315.48% | 102.33% | -5.74% | -1.83% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,028,441,548.13Regulatory Fees
$710,116.27
Total Slippage
$6,834,664.12
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 1, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following,momentum,leveraged etfs,regime switching,risk-on/risk-off,tactical allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total