TQQQ For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) - 50d tqqq/200d tqqq, BIL instead of UVXY and TQQQ intsead of TCEL for longterm backtest compare
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Daily, rule-based switches among TQQQ, SQQQ, UPRO, TLT, and BIL using a long-term trend filter and short-term “heat” (RSI). Rides tech uptrends with TQQQ, steps to cash when overheated, and uses hedges or dip-buys in downtrends. Very high risk.
Uses: TQQQ=3x NASDAQ-100; SQQQ=−3x NASDAQ-100; UPRO=3x S&P 500; TLT=long Treasuries; BIL=T-bills (cash). RSI is a 0–100 short-term “heat” gauge (>80 hot, <30 washed-out).
1) If TQQQ’s 50-day avg > 200-day: hold TQQQ unless RSI(TQQQ)>79 or RSI(SPY)>80 → BIL.
2) Else: if RSI(TQQQ)<31 → TQQQ; else if RSI(SPY)<30 → UPRO; else if TQQQ<20-day avg → hold the stronger of SQQQ or TLT; else if RSI(SQQQ)<31 → SQQQ; otherwise TQQQ. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample: ~60% annualized return, ~58% max drawdown, Calmar ~1.03, Sharpe ~1.04 vs SPY ~21% return and ~19% drawdown. Captures tech uptrends with hedges/regime shifts for higher upside, but with added risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | 2.28 | 0.43 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 649.02% | 14.13% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.86 | |
| 127,512.01% | 59.89% | 1% | -9.32% | 1.09 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$12,761,200.95Regulatory Fees
$13,150.27
Total Slippage
$88,722.85
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 7, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following,momentum,mean-reversion,leveraged etfs,market timing,rsi,moving averages,tactical asset allocation,risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total