TQQQ For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) -50d spy/200d spy, BIL instead of UVXY and TQQQ intsead of TCEL for longterm backtest compare
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rules-based “risk-on/risk-off” strategy. In uptrends it rides 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) unless markets look too hot, then it parks in T‑bills. In downtrends it hunts oversold bounces or shifts to defense via inverse Nasdaq (SQQQ) or long Treasuries (TLT).
Daily check of the S&P 500’s trend (50-day vs 200-day average).
- Uptrend: own 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) unless short-term “heat” is extreme; then park in T‑bills (BIL).
- Downtrend: try oversold bounces (TQQQ or 3x S&P UPRO). If no bounce, choose defense: either inverse Nasdaq (SQQQ) or long Treasuries (TLT), based on recent strength.
Out-of-sample, this rules-based strategy offers higher upside than the S&P 500: ~32.7% annualized vs ~20.7%, by riding 3x Nasdaq in uptrends and hedging in downturns (SQQQ/TLT/BIL). Accept higher drawdowns for potentially greater long-run growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 2.38 | 0.48 | 0.69 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 686.64% | 13.8% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.84 | |
| 113,830.02% | 55.44% | 4.53% | -11.17% | 1.05 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$11,393,002.01Regulatory Fees
$12,654.14
Total Slippage
$84,724.01
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 7, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation,trend-following,momentum,leveraged etfs,risk-on/risk-off,equities,bonds,cash-management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total