TQQQ For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) -50d spy/200d spy, BIL instead of UVXY and TQQQ intsead of TCEL for longterm backtest compare
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
Daily, rules-based switching among TQQQ, BIL, UPRO, SQQQ, or TLT. It rides long uptrends in tech, steps aside when overheated, and during downtrends either buys sharp dips or rotates to defensive assets (inverse tech or Treasuries).
Daily rules:
• If SPY 50d avg > 200d (uptrend), hold TQQQ (3x Nasdaq). If short‑term is “too hot” (RSI: TQQQ>79 or SPY>80; RSI = hot/cold meter), hold BIL (T‑Bills).
• Else (downtrend), buy dips: TQQQ if its RSI<31; else UPRO (3x S&P) if SPY RSI<30. If no dip: if TQQQ < 20d avg, own the stronger of SQQQ (3x inverse Nasdaq) or TLT (Treasuries); else SQQQ if unusually weak, otherwise TQQQ.
Out-of-sample: ~32.7% annual return vs ~20.7% for S&P, driven by tech leadership and 3x ETFs with hedges (cash, inverse Nasdaq, Treasuries). Seeks bigger upside with risk controls—bear markets can bring larger drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | 2.39 | 0.48 | 0.7 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 720.47% | 13.98% | 9.27% | 4.88% | 0.85 | |
| 129,231.93% | 56.14% | 31.23% | 11.44% | 1.05 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$12,933,192.51Regulatory Fees
$13,022.35
Total Slippage
$87,306.51
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 7, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following,momentum,tactical asset allocation,leveraged etfs,market timing,risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total