TQQQ For The Long Term (Reddit Post Link) -50d spy/200d spy, BIL instead of UVXY and TQQQ intsead of TCEL for longterm backtest compare
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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About
An aggressive market-timing strategy that usually rides leveraged tech stocks in good markets, moves to Treasury bills when things look overheated, and switches to rebound trades or defense when the market weakens.
This strategy mostly tries to own TQQQ, a very aggressive fund that aims to deliver about 3x the daily move of the Nasdaq-100.
First it checks whether the broad U.S. stock market (SPY) is in a healthy long-term uptrend by comparing its 50-day average price to its 200-day average. If the short-term average is above the long-term average, it treats that as a bull market and usually holds TQQQ. But if recent gains look too extreme, it steps aside into BIL, a cash-like Treasury-bill fund.
If the market trend looks weak, it becomes more tactical: sometimes it buys beaten-down stocks for a rebound, and other times it hides in either SQQQ (which rises when the Nasdaq falls) or TLT (long-term U.S. Treasury bonds), depending on which looks stronger at the time.
Out-of-sample: ~30% annualized return vs SPY ~19%, with strong upside in tech rallies and regime hedges to cap overheating risk. Max drawdown ~58%—for risk-tolerant, performance-driven investors.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 2.42 | 0.49 | 0.7 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 799.57% | 14.16% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.86 | |
| 156,928.62% | 55.84% | -7.81% | 1.93% | 1.05 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$15,702,862.11Regulatory Fees
$13,716.18
Total Slippage
$121,045.26
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 7, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, nasdaq, s&p 500, defensive rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total