TQQQ For The Long Term Minimal | Dereck Nielsen, Pietros Maneos & Raekon v1.4 | 258.9%/42.2%DD from 28 Oct 2011
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily-rebalanced, Nasdaq-leaning strategy using TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) with hedges (SQQQ, UVXY) and safe assets (TLT, SPXL) to pursue long-run growth while aiming to limit big drawdowns. Uses momentum checks and price health signals to rotate.
What this strategy does, in plain language:
- It mainly uses TQQQ, a 3x Nasdaq bet, as the growth engine. On some days it may tilt toward other assets (like SPXL for more broad US stocks, or cash) to manage risk.
- It checks momentum and health signals daily. A key signal is a short-term momentum measure (think of it as a momentum meter) on TQQQ. If that meter gets very high (meaning the price has surged recently and may be ripe for a pullback), the system starts hedging or rotating out of Nasdaq exposure.
- It uses other signals from related assets (QQQ, SPY, SPXL, SQQQ, UVXY, TLT) to decide whether the Nasdaq should stay the lead or whether hedges/bonds should take over. For example, if Nasdaq looks expensive and volatility is rising, it may move into hedges like SQQQ (inverse Nasdaq) or UVXY (volatility) or into bonds (TLT).
- The plan rebalances every day, keeping the number of assets and trades relatively small, with the goal of long-run growth while trying to avoid big losses.
- It’s important to know leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses and can behave very differently from plain stock investments; this strategy tries to use that leverage carefully rather than letting it run unchecked.
Out-of-sample edge: ~80% annualized return vs SPY ~23%; oos Sharpe ~1.29 and Calmar ~1.58. Nasdaq-led growth with hedges targets higher long-run gains with risk control—beware sizable drawdowns in stressed markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11 | 1.04 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 543,153,456.44% | 194.07% | -0.39% | -2.36% | 2.01 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$54,315,355,643.99Regulatory Fees
$37,549,981.05
Total Slippage
$270,099,658.00
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 17, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, nasdaq exposure, risk management, multi-asset rotation, u.s. equities, hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total