TQQQ Daily 60d Bond Trend, 2d Bond Trend, Drawdown, Vix
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Daily, rules-based switches between leveraged tech (TQQQ) and a defensive mix (Treasuries, US dollar, gold) using interest‑rate trends, recent tech drawdowns, and a volatility gauge to dial risk up or down.
Each day:
1) Rate check: If bonds (BND) beat cash-like T‑bills (BIL) over 60 days, rates aren’t rising; else they are.
2a) If rates not rising: usually hold TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100 tech). But if QQQ fell >5% in 10 days, cut to a tiny position and, using a vol gauge (SVXY), hold either TMF (3x long Treas) or a small TQQQ stake.
2b) If rates rising: go defensive—about 55% TQQQ and 45% split across steadier assets (IEF Treasuries, UUP USD, GLD gold, TMF), or 100% in that mix when short‑term bonds are weak.
Out-of-sample edge: 44.17% annualized return vs ~13.66% for the S&P, Sharpe 1.08 vs 0.81, but max drawdown 59.33% vs 20.28%. A rate-regime, volatility-driven approach aiming higher growth with disciplined risk control.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 5, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged tech, rate regime, volatility filter, risk-on/off, daily rebalance, safe-haven mix
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks