A six-layer, rules-based, daily-rebalanced strategy that buys the market in bull times and uses multiple hedges (volatility, currency/gold, and bear/leveraged funds) to protect against big drops, with a momentum-driven “Fund Surf” to select a small, adaptive ETF mix.

Total Market Hedged (V 1.1) is built from six layered rules that are checked daily. A trend filter using SPY’s 200-day moving average decides if the market is in a bull or bear regime. A Black Swan layer uses volatile hedges (like UVXY) and momentum checks to signal risk-off moves. In bull times, a Hedged Bull overlay runs alongside a core bull strategy (and a separate Bull surface) to capture upside while limiting risk; in bear times, a Hedged Bear overlay activates to reduce drawdown and potentially profit from declines. A volatility hedge (often using assets like UUP for dollar strength and GLD for gold) dampens swings when risk is high and protects profits. The “Fund Surf” component screens a small pool of ETFs (including SHY, TQQQ, SPXL, and similar) and selects a top subset to tilt toward, rather than relying on a single instrument. Rebalancing happens daily, so positions adjust as conditions shift. Key tickers act as signals or vehicles for exposure: SPY for trend, QQQ (and leveraged alternatives like TQQQ/SPXL) for upside, UVXY for volatility risk, SQQQ/SPXS for bear bets, UUP/GLD for hedges, and SHY for defensive ballast. The design aims to be flexible (you can swap in other hedges or overlay logic) but is inherently complex and sensitive to parameter choices and market regime changes.

Risk-aware, multi-layer hedged strategy with out-of-sample annualized return 17.44%, Sharpe 0.78, Calmar 0.48 and positive OOS alpha. It adapts to bull/bear regimes, delivering diversification and potential downside resilience versus the S&P 500.