Tortoise and the Hare (outrun SPY) w/Divs
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Each quarter, buy the two S&P 500 sectors that dropped the most over the past month, split the money 50/50, and hold for three months. A simple contrarian bet on a rebound; concentrated and can lag if losers keep losing.
Every quarter, look back ~1 month (20 trading days) at 11 S&P 500 sector funds and pick the two that fell the most. Examples: tech=XLK, health care=XLV, energy=XLE, utilities=XLU, real estate=XLRE. Split money equally between the two and hold for 3 months, then repeat.
Out-of-sample edge: ~17.38% annualized return with 14.8% max drawdown vs SPY’s ~18.8%, Calmar ~1.18 and Sharpe ~0.91. Quarterly contrarian sector rotation adds diversification and downside protection with upside potential.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 0.91 | 0.64 | 0.8 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168.14% | 13.78% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.76 | |
| 320% | 20.66% | -0.33% | 2.83% | 0.96 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$41,999.70Regulatory Fees
$17.95
Total Slippage
$112.50
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 28, 2024
Trading Setting
Quarterly
Type
Stocks
Category
Us equities, sector rotation, contrarian/mean reversion, quarterly rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
XLB
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLC
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLF
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLI
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLRE
State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLU
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLV
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks