TMF Momentum
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Switches among TMF (3x long Treasuries), SHV (cash‑like T‑bills), VIXY (volatility), and TECL (3x tech). Rides bond momentum, hides in cash when weak, hedges when stocks are overheated, and buys tech only on rare deep sell‑offs.
RSI gauges how “hot/cold” prices were lately. If SPY or QQQ are red‑hot, buy VIXY (volatility). Else, when long Treasuries look stronger than T‑bills (TLT > BIL), ride TMF (3x bonds) unless its trend weakens or runs too hot—then park in SHV (T‑bills). If bonds aren’t strong, stay in SHV, except when tech is extremely washed‑out (TQQQ very low) → TECL (3x tech).
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~43% annualized return vs SPY's ~20%, with Calmar ~1.83—strong risk-adjusted gains from bond momentum, cash hedges, and selective tech bets. Higher upside, but larger drawdown than SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 0.42 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 590.61% | 13.59% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 404,670.44% | 72.92% | 0.67% | 13.18% | 1.76 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$40,477,043.93Regulatory Fees
$99,495.61
Total Slippage
$700,057.53
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum,tactical asset allocation,bonds,technology,volatility hedge,leveraged etfs,trend-following,mean-reversion
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
VIXY
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks